Can Egypt Lead the Arab World Again?

This monograph examines the possibility of Egypt leading the Arab world again, and how that effort, if successful, will present opportunities and challenges for U.S. policy. Presently, Egypt is not in a position to do so given its many domestic problems stemming from its turbulent politics since 2011 and the challenges facing its economy--high unemployment, weak tourism revenues because of terrorist incidents, and high inflation as it implements an IMF economic reform package. However,...
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This monograph examines the possibility of Egypt leading the Arab world again, and how that effort, if successful, will present opportunities and challenges for U.S. policy. Presently, Egypt is not in a position to do so given its many domestic problems stemming from its turbulent politics since 2011 and the challenges facing its economy--high unemployment, weak tourism revenues because of terrorist incidents, and high inflation as it implements an IMF economic reform package. However, Egypt has faced similar problems before and has recovered, enabling it to pursue an Arab leadership role. The United States should be prepared to deal with Egypt's longstanding leadership quest, which this monograph argues will generally be a positive development for the United States in the region. Given the intense Sunni-Shia conflicts in the region fed largely by the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, having a moderate Sunni Muslim country like Egypt in a leadership role in the region will dampen this sectarian strife. Because of its large and competent military, Egypt can be a source of stability and reassurance when other Arab states, particularly Gulf states such as Saudi Arabia, are feeling vulnerable from outside threats. Furthermore, Egypt can play a moderating influence in the region by being a bulwark against the radical extremist ideologies of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), al-Qaeda, and like-minded groups. The United States can help Egypt succeed by continuing military assistance, offering counterterrorism training, and resuming military exercises. This monograph also argues for a boost in U.S. economic assistance to past levels--given Egypt's strategic importance--to help it cope with economic reform measures even under U.S. budgetary woes. Although the United States and Egypt will continue to differ on the nature of Egypt's domestic politics, particularly regarding human rights and dissent and recognizing that the United States has limited influence in this regard, Washington should use whatever leverage it has to persuade the Egyptian Government to be less repressive, because an easing of authoritarian policies and practices will help Egyptian stability in the long run.